Global Politics

KENYA: PRESIDENTIAL OPINION POOL PREDICT RAILA AMOLLO ODINGA IS ON THE LEADS

5 Regions Giving William Ruto Sleepless Nights With Only 10 Days Remaining Before Elections

 

Sonkonews   July 29, 2022Read original

KEY POINTS

Azimio-OKA presidential candidate Raila Odinga is still the most popular presidential candidate,

George Luchiri Wajackoya of Roots party comes third with 1.8% while Agano party leader David Mwaure is trailing with 0.1%.

Earlier this month, Ruto however advised his supporters to ignore such opinion polls saying that they are manipulated in favor of Raila.

Azimio-OKA presidential candidate Raila Odinga is still the most popular presidential candidate, currently with 46.7%, according to an opinion poll by Trends and Insights Africa. The Deputy President and Kenya Kwanza flagbearer William Ruto comes second with 44.4%.

George Luchiri Wajackoya of Roots party comes third with 1.8% while Agano party leader David Mwaure is trailing with 0.1%.

5.2% of the people who participated in the opinion polls are yet to decide on whom they will support for presidency with only 10 days remaining before the general elections are held. In Tifa’s previous polls, Ruto was at 39% while Raila was at 42%.

In terms of support in regions, Raila has shown dust to Ruto in Nairobi with 59%, Western 61%, Nyanza 80%, lower Eastern with 58% and South Rift at 60%. In Mt. Kenya and Central Rift, Raila enjoys a support of 27% and 15% respectively.

On the other hand, Ruto enjoys greater support in Mt. Kenya(66%) and Central Rift(83%). In Nairobi, his support base stands at 34%, Western 26%, Nyanza 12%, lower Eastern 35% and South Rift 34%.

Regarding how the candidates performed along with their running mates, Ruto and Rigathi Gachagua maintained a lead in Central Rift and Lower Easter with 83% and 66% respectively.

The Raila Karua ticket is however the most popular in Lower Eastern, Nairobi, Nyanza, South Rift and Western.

Earlier this month, Ruto however advised his supporters to ignore such opinion polls saying that they are manipulated in favor of Raila.

Additional story

Opposition leader Odinga Keeps Narrow Lead on the eve of Kenya vote

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Kenyan opposition leader Raila Odinga, who is making a fifth attempt at the presidency, is the favorite to win a Aug. 9 election, according to an opinion poll.

Odinga enjoys a small lead with 46.7% support in the survey, against 44.4% of possible votes for rival Deputy President William Ruto, Nairobi-based pollster Tifa Research said Friday in an emailed statement. Two other candidates, George Wajackoyah and David Waihiga, polled 1.8% and 0.1% respectively, it said.

About 5% of respondents said they are yet to decide on their presidential pick, and another 1.9% were unwilling to reveal their preferred candidate.

Being neck-and-neck means Odinga and Ruto must mobilize voters in their strongholds in the remaining days of the campaigns to win, Tom Wolf, a research analyst at Tifa Research, said at a virtual briefing.

In addition to slower economic growth and accelerating inflation, whoever succeeds President Uhuru Kenyatta will also have to contend with a growing government debt pile, which the International Monetary Funds assesses as at high risk of debt distress, limiting fiscal space to spend on election promises.

Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance remains the most popular political party with 41%, followed by Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement’s 34%. However, 47% of Kenyans surveyed support the Azimio La Umoja coalition backing Odinga, compared with 42% in favor of the Kenya Kwanza Alliance of parties that prefer Ruto.

A candidate needs to win a majority of the votes and at least a quarter of the ballots cast in half of Kenya’s 47 counties to win.

The survey, released 10 days to the voting day, conducted 2,056 face-to-face interviews between July 21-26, and has a margin error of plus or minus 2.16%, Tifa Research said.

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