KAMPALA — Ambassador Olara Otunnu’s campaign to become the next Secretary-General of the United Nations has entered a crucial phase, with questions emerging over whether his decades of diplomatic experience and ambitious reform agenda can overcome the complex political realities that determine who occupies the world’s top diplomatic office.

Otunnu, a veteran Ugandan diplomat and former UN Under-Secretary-General, was nominated by Uganda as a candidate to succeed António Guterres in a race that is expected to be shaped as much by geopolitics as by individual credentials.

The former UN Special Representative for Children and Armed Conflict enters the contest at a time when the organisation is facing some of its greatest tests since its founding.

Conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza, Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo continue to challenge the UN’s peace and security mandate, while emerging issues such as artificial intelligence, climate change, migration and development financing have expanded the institution’s responsibilities.

Otunnu argues that the next Secretary-General must be more than an administrator, but rather a bridge-builder capable of restoring confidence in multilateralism, rebuilding trust among competing global powers and leading reforms within the UN system.

A Difficult Starting Point

Otunnu’s candidacy, however, has attracted debate after leaked reports from the UN Security Council’s first informal straw poll placed him among the lower-ranked candidates.

According to unconfirmed results circulating after the July 30 secret ballot, Costa Rica’s Rebeca Grynspan reportedly led the field with 10 “Encourage” votes, while Otunnu received two “Encourage” votes, five “Discourage” votes and eight “No Opinion” votes.

The UN Security Council traditionally keeps straw poll results confidential, sharing them only with member states to help assess the strength of candidates before formal voting begins.

The reported outcome has sparked discussion in Kampala over Uganda’s decision to enter Otunnu into the race late, with some analysts questioning whether the nomination was primarily aimed at winning the UN position or achieving broader political objectives.

Veteran journalist and political analyst Charles Onyango-Obbo suggested that President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni’s support for his former political rival could have wider implications beyond the UN race.

“By throwing veteran diplomat Olara Otunnu so late into the race for UN Sec-Gen, Uganda’s President surely isn’t expecting he will win. And him losing might be the objective,” Onyango-Obbo wrote.

He argued that the international exposure could potentially reshape Uganda’s political landscape, including Otunnu’s future role within the Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) or possible government engagement.

The “Otunnu Formula” Comes Full Circle

There is also historical symbolism surrounding Otunnu’s participation in the race.

During his tenure as President of the UN Security Council in December 1981, Otunnu introduced the informal straw poll system used to measure support for candidates. The process later became known as the “Otunnu Formula.”

More than four decades later, the same mechanism is now being used to assess his own prospects for becoming UN Secretary-General.

The Case for Otunnu

Despite the political challenges, supporters of Otunnu’s candidacy point to a diplomatic career spanning more than 40 years.

His experience includes serving as Uganda’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations, President of the UN Security Council, and UN Under-Secretary-General for Children and Armed Conflict.

His campaign is built around five major priorities:

1. Reforming the United Nations

Otunnu wants to strengthen the credibility, efficiency and accountability of the UN by supporting institutional reforms that make the organisation more responsive to current global challenges.

He argues that while member states control reform decisions, the Secretary-General must provide leadership in driving transformation.

2. Making Peace and Security a Central Mission

Conflict resolution remains at the heart of Otunnu’s agenda.

He proposes stronger diplomatic engagement in major conflict zones, including Ukraine, Gaza, Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Iran, while promoting peace conferences and stronger post-conflict recovery mechanisms.

3. Establishing Global Rules for Artificial Intelligence

One of the defining elements of his platform is a proposal for a dedicated UN mechanism on artificial intelligence.

Otunnu argues that the global body should help establish international standards for AI governance while ensuring developing countries are not left behind in accessing emerging technologies.

4. Balancing Climate Action and Development

On climate change, Otunnu supports implementation of the Paris Agreement but argues that environmental action must be combined with economic development.

He proposes greater cooperation on climate finance, technology transfer and capacity building to help developing countries transition sustainably.

5. Bridging the Global Development Gap

Otunnu also wants the UN to strengthen partnerships with regional organisations, expand development financing and reconnect the institution with communities, young people and faith-based groups.

The UN Race Is About More Than Qualifications

While experience and vision matter, the selection of a UN Secretary-General is ultimately a political process.

The candidate must secure support from the 15-member UN Security Council, including avoiding opposition from any of the five permanent members — China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States — which hold veto power.

Regional balance, international alliances and the ability to emerge as a consensus candidate often determine the outcome.

For Otunnu, the challenge is therefore not only proving that he has the experience to lead the UN, but convincing powerful countries that his leadership would serve their strategic interests while restoring confidence in global cooperation.

As the race progresses, the question remains: Can a diplomat with a strong résumé and a reformist agenda overcome the political arithmetic of the United Nations?

POLL

Do you think Ambassador Olara Otunnu can win the race for UN Secretary-General?

 Yes, his diplomatic experience gives him a strong chance

 No, the UN process is dominated by major powers

 He may not win, but the campaign raises Uganda’s global profile

 It is too early to tell

Vote and share your views.