UGANDA’S INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL CONFLICT: IRAN AND US, RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR AND ENVIRONMENTAL GLOBAL WARMING CATASTROPHIC BACKLASH

 

The meltdown in Iran, the Iran-US and Russia, Ukraine, Uganda Economy expert asserted how does the Oil and Gas caused inflation to Uganda economy as transportation goes up from, the Uganda fuel price shoot up from UGX 4200 to 7200. The cost of transporting commodities goes up; that means higher prices that commercial banks and financial institutions are facing.

“Uganda’s economy is facing a period of heightened pressure as movements in the US dollar exchange rate affect the cost of doing business. Household purchasing power, trade, investment and the general cost of living. The strengthening of the US dollar against the Ugandan shilling presents a significant challenge, particularly because Uganda relies heavily on imported fuel, machinery, pharmaceuticals, industrial raw materials and essential commodities.”

Gulu City- Wednesday, October 5, 2026.

By Okumu Livingstone Langol (Uganda Correspondent)

On Monday, October 3, 2026. It was a usual market day in Gulu City Main Market, Cere-leno, Olayo-long markets, Gulu City outskirts. Prices for commodities like groundnut went up from UGX 5,000 per kg to UGX 8,000 per kg, and posho went up from UGX 21,000 per 10kg to UGX 38,000 per 10 kg.

Akech Magrath, a food vendor in Gulu City alluded that a plat of cocked bean who was sold at UGX 4,000, rose to UGX 8,000. While green vegetables, Boo, Malakwang, and Otigo, which was sold a plate of meal at UGX 5,000, now go for UGX 12,000.

“Although the market prices shoot up for our advantage, we paid the cost of buying posho heavily. We used to buy a kilogram of Maize at UGX 170,000, now the same 100 kilogram of Maize we buy at UGX 270,000, while beans is being imported from Tanzania and Kenya. Simsim, we buy 100 kilograms at UGX 500,000 and local sellers sell them at UGX a kilogram at UGX7,000.

One hundred kilogram of bean in Gulu City Main Market is sold at Shillings 500,000, while the retail sale is sold at Shillings 8,000. Groundnut, one hundred kilograms, is sold at Shillings 600,000, from Shillings 300,000 a sack.

Our Correspondent, Okumu Livingstone Langol catch up with top Uganda economy in Gulu City Mr. Amos Tamanya, from SOL Associate on-one-on-one interview. asked him the most difficult things the basic point Uganda is facing is high rates of inflation what does the Central Bank Rates indicates?

Mr. Amos Tamanya argued that currently the Central Bank Rate (CBR) is the rate the Bank of Uganda lend money to Commercial Banks and other financial institutions. We should know that the Central Bank does not deal directly with individuals; it’s the Commercial Banks and financial institutions that lend lone to sellers.

Currently what has happened Central Bank of Uganda has raised it lending rates to Commercial Banks. This means businesses are paying higher interest, which means increased prices that the Central Bank increased its interest rate from 9.75 % to 12%,

What has triggered the Central Bank to increased lending rates, there is what is called inflation, mean the general increased in the prices of commodities.

Our Correspondent questioned Uganda’s economy: why do the prices of commodities shoot up?

Mr. Amos Tamanya asserted that the reason prices of commodities increased is that there are fewer commodities; there is more money in circulation than commodities.

“Remember Uganda Economy is the free economy, that means prices of goods are determine by forces of demand and supply.”

Insisting that, early on, supply is low and demand is high, this means the prices of commodities go up. this because the prolonged dry spelled that caused drought has affected production harvest thought out the country.

The rain pattern changed from wet and dry to prolonged dry spelled from the early month during the rain on slaughters in March to April, that affected the food crops that was planted, the prolonged dry spelled continue to the second season that would have seen the second rain pattern in the country.

This Internal causes of inflation as result of poor harvest, due to environmental global warning catastrophe world expert indicated that.

he permafrost system is really like a sleeping giant,” said Gustaf Hugelius, a permafrost expert at Stockholm University.

A sleeping giant awakens.

For thousands of years, when the climate was somewhat stable, the Arctic helped Earth’s delicate carbon cycle by acting as a sink. That means plants in the cold areas used to pull some heat-trapping gas out of the air and capture it in the frozen ground.

With the Arctic is essentially withdrawing more carbon from the air than it added, benefiting the entire globe. A few years ago, warming caused that balance to shift so that once-frozen ground is venting more heat-trapping gases than it takes in. Instead of reducing climate change, the Arctic is now adding to the problem, said Columbia University ecologist Duncan Mange.

Permafrost thaw, along with other “warming-induced emissions” from fires and changes to wetlands and lakes, is likely to increase warming by 20% by the end of the century, according to a September study co-authored by Arctic ecologist Sue Natali of the Woodwall Climate Research Centre.

It may be a small amount, not worthy of scenarios of doom, but it’s something “that we’re going to have to deal with” on top of everything else, said University of Victoria climate scientist Andrew Weaver, who first calculated the half-a-degree of expected permafrost warming in a 2012 study.

What’s troublesome is that when politicians and scientists talk about future warming, they’re usually not accounting for the extra greenhouse gases from permafrost thawing, said Natali and Hugelius. So, while the U.N. says without policy changes the world will warm 2.6 degrees C (4.7 degrees F) above pre-industrial times by the end of the century, it leaves out a few tenths of a degree from thawing permafrost, they said.

The Global conflict between Iran, the US, Russia, and Ukraine is also a cause of Uganda’s inflation.

Mr. Amos Tamanya stressed that the external causes of Uganda’s inflation rates, coupled with oil and gas prices, are the cause of Uganda’s inflation rates. How do oil and gas cause inflation?

It means that, the measure causes of transport goes up, as fuel prize rose up from Uganda Shillings 4200 to 7200 shilling. The cost of commodities goes up; this means higher prices. When prices are higher, that means the cost of production is high.

“The higher cost of production means fewer products are more expensive, that we cannot compute in the global markets; that means our exports become low, and export alone, it means our earning in dollar are low. When our earnings in dollars are low, that means we have low dollar reserves.”

Therefore, the importers who are transporting the fuel and other things need dollars. now, those who are importing buy the dollar from transporters. Our export is low; our earnings are low too.

Remember, those who import need the dollar. so, the few exporters who have the dollar sell it expensively to importers. That now explain dollar exchange rates goes up, and also explained internal cost of production. But, the higher cost of imported goods too.

Mr. Amos Tamanya, in a nutshell, warned that the external global conflict in Iran and the US war couple with the Russia-Ukraine war, is the bedrock of global inflation versus the global environmental catastrophe.

See how the Acholi Sub Region bear the brunt of the global environmental and conflict.

Wilson Otto, the Chairman Local District Chairman, informed the Acholi Leadership Forum during the Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning in September 2026 in Gulu that the situation in Agago District, East Acholi, is alarming as famine strike.

“Our people in Agago District they majority, go without a meal all day; people cock in the night to avoid intruders who move to look for food to eat, while targeting individual families who are preparing their meal. At times, those who suffer hunger the most are the older people. Women who are the main providers in the home, after cocking they, don’t serve food to their husbands and children while denying food to older people.” Agago District Chairman Wilson Otto observed.

Ojok Cosmas, 38 years old, from Lakim Village, Odek Sub County, stressed that there is nothing to eat; hunger is biting hard. When you go to the marketplaces, there are no any commodities in the Markets. People are going without the meal for the all day.

“At our home, we have been planting vegetables like Ambergine; bilinyanya, okra; Otigo Lawkka, Cabbage; Kabuz, Tomatoes; Nyanya, Cowpea plant, Boo, Amaranth; Obuga and Hibiscus cannabinus; Malakwang. Which has given our family the leverage on hunger has famine strike across Northern Uganda due to the long-term drought.” Ojok Cosmas noted.

Mr. Oola Coo-Cere has been in commercial business dealing in produce and has now turned into a hardware seller in Gulu City. Our correspondent caught up with him and asked him how the economic inflation is affecting his business.

Mr. Oola Coo-Cere argued that for over 40 years, he has been in business in Gulu, but is a long journey back to 1986, when the National Resistance Army, the Museveni-led regime, entered Acholi Sub Region.

I was working in Gulu Municipality as Senior Electrical Officer, the job I started in 1980 when I graduated from Elgon Technical College as Electoral Engineer. When the new regime came in, we were cut off in the rural area. And there was no means of survival; I became a local businessperson known as a Magendo man.

Used to buy salt and soap, the most demanded items at that time, for two years, from 1986 up to 1988. Acholi Sub Region was cut off, and it means there were no markets our people could access.

“My mother, Lucia Akot, the deceased, who never went to school, she is the one who taught me economics, because she became my banker; from the market, I would deposit millions of monies to her, after counting how much cash there was.

And when I came back to ask her to give me back the money, she would count the money by counting her fingers; she would count her fingers from one finger to Ten Fingers, and she would even balance her account book.

However, when I became a businessman in Gulu Municipality, that experienced I gain from my mother Lucia Akot, I have learned that when the commodities are few in the market, we raised the prices of our goods. Not just because the production prices from the industries go up.

We do it to keep our customer, now Mr. Oola Coo-Cere is among hundreds dealing in hardware shop dealers in Gulu City facing fewer customer. I used to get over 100 customers who would buy over 1000 Tororo Cement. But now I hardly receive even 10 customers a day. which mean that I have to raise the prices of my commodities, and when I sell them very higher, my home consumption does not dwindle into my capital.

In Gulu City alone, we have over 200 Hotel and Restaurants, according to Gulu Deputy Resident Commissioner Mr. Peter Banya, he revealed to Our Correspondent a month ago that over 2000 vaster booked themselves per day in Gulu City Hotel.

However, The Manager, who requested not to be name, revealed that in a day Kakanyero Hotel would receive about 15 guests, compared to days in the past when they would receive about 80 guests.

“We are getting fewer guests these days, like yesterday, Saturday, we received only 15 guests. Things are not good. “The manager lamented.

The cost-of-living crisis and pressure on in ordinary Ugandans

One of the most significant consequences of current depreciation is its effect on ordinary citizens; Uganda’s economy is highly interconnected with international markets. Even products manufactured locally may depend on imported packaging machinery, fuel, fertilizers, chemicals and other inputs. Therefore, a weaker shilling does not only affect importers, but its consequences also spread throughout the domestic economy.

The prices of transport, construction materials, manufactured goods, Agricultural input and household, people are cocking one meal in a day, and they food is prepared in the night to avoid shortages; these necessities can increase as businesses adjust to higher operating costs.

The situation became more concerning in October this year, 2026, when annual inflation reached 5.8% compared with 4.6% in September. Food inflation rose sharply to 10.7%, up from 4.5% of its value against the dollar since June.

The situation has impacted rural farmers who depend on productivity from their land, those landlord we grow Soyabean Beans and Maize for each planting season, in Northern Uganda, Maize, Bean and soya bean can be planted three times in a year, which means the seasional income were UGX 11 million, compare to government teachers, police and Prison departiment whose their salary income per month is UGX 5,000.

A case in point, many find that their income no longer covers the same food, transport, rent and school-related expenses. Those farmers in rural settings now suffer because nothing from productivity was realised as the foodstuffs they have planted in the first and second seasons dried up. In that category, workers whose salaries remain unchanged effectively experience a reduction in real income

In Gulu City, small and medium size enterprices who deal in classic hardware clothes experienced differences, A lady who deal classic suit sales in Kingdom House on Bank Lane has customers who buy suit, each one from UGX 500,000 to 3 million; she has customers as usual. A shop dealer in ready-made clothes suffered vulnerability because she and other dealers often lack sufficient financial reserves to absorb sudden increases in import and production costs.

The business and investment environment

The depreciation of the shilling create uncertainity for investors and business owners; companies that borrow in foreign currency but earn their revenue in Uganda shilling face an increased repayment burden. Manufacturers may postpone expansion plans because imported machinery and raw materials become more expensive.

Likewise the interest rates, when inflationary pressure increase, as it happened, Bank of Uganda has tighten monetry police to control increases and support currency stavbiliity, for example, dollar rates goes up $100 to UGX 420,000 last week on 4th October and Kenya shilling was 40,00 shilling per 100 kenya shilling aganist Uganda 1 shlling, but now Bank of Uganda has stabilized Kenya shillings to 30,00 to Uganda 1 shilling.

In October this year, 2026, the Bank of Uganda raised its central Bank Rate from 9.75 to 12% in response to inflation and currency pressure. It also intervened in the foreign exchange market by selling foreign currency to support the dwindling shillings. This has created a difficult balancing act: monetary policy must contain inflation and stabilise the currency without unnecessarily restricting credit, investment and economic activity.

The question Ugandans are asking is: is Uganda’s economy actually contracting?

It is important to distinguish between an economy experiencing serious financial pressure and an economy that is actually shrinking.

The Ministry of Finance’s September 2026 report indicated that economic activity was still expanding. The Purchasing Managers’ Index stood at 53.0 above the 50-point threshold that indicates improving private sector business conditions. However, this was lower than 55.0 recorded in August, suggesting that business momentum was slowing.

Thus, Uganda is not necessarily experiencing an outright economic contraction. Rather, it is experiencing a combination of currency depreciation, rising living costs, pressure on businesses and declining purchasing power.

.This distinction matters because economic growth figures alone do not always reflect the financial reality experienced by ordinary households

A commoner from the village would ask, what does it mean for them and Uganda’s economic future?

This is a golden opportunity that Uganda can use to strengthen its economic position, in Northern Uganda, there used to be an Agricultural Mechanisation workshop, Adak Group Farm, meant to repair tractors, because Acholi Sub Region was a hub for the Tobacco Growers’ Cooperative Society Uniion under British American Tobacco BAT.

Let the government increase domestic production by creating and revamping Cooperative Society Unions under West Acholi and East Acholi, which remain defunct Elephants, and reduce unnecessary dependence on imported goods; Puranga Cooperative Union was the bedrock of Cotton Genny, which used to supply Lira Spinning Mill.

Supporting local manufacture by giving them investment funds to build a soybean machine factory to produce Oil in Omoro District and Pader District, where sunflower, groundnut and Shea tree oil are in mass production, to create agricultural processing and value addition that would help reduce the demand for foreign currency

Secondly, Uganda needs to diversify its export base to allow farmers in rural areas who are the main growers of Simsim, which is produced in Lamwo, and groundnut, which is produced in Amuru District in large quantities; and to open other market value products like coffee, Tea and fishing industry to be open to local investors, rather than giving zero interest to Chinese and other foreign against who are controlling local productivity to allow foreign exchange earning increased.

The government should open up to construct Gulu Regional Airport, which is the second largest airport in Uganda, to support the tourism industry. Many foreign tourists who come annually to visit Murchison National Park would increase local and domestic earnings to boost export earnings. This would improve the country’s stability to meet international payment obligations.

Thirdly, the government needs to allow the Ugandan diaspora living in the Western World and Eastern Asia to strengthen investment confidence, rather than witch-hunting citizens, by maintaining predictable economic policies and improving the business environment. Local and foreign investors are more likely to bring capital into an economy where they have confidence in policy stability and the ability to repatriate legitimate investment, to create space in the area like Awere that is yearning to become a city.

Fourth, we have Uganda Commercial Bank under the Bank of Uganda, the Pearl Bank, Housing Finance Bank, Stanbic Bank and Uganda Development Bank UDB, that bank has authority to give zero-interest loans at affordable rates to citizens, with that carefully balance currency stabilization with affordable access to credit. Excessively expensive borrowing could discourage business expansion, which is not taken care of. let individuls citizen who are being produce from over 40 universities across the region be employee to create and private-sector investment.

Finally, the most forgotten, the anticipated development of Uganda Oil Industry. “Cord named Bunyoro Oil and Gas must be reconsider naming it Acholi Buyuro Oil and Gas, because the Oil and Gas 80 percent is found North of River Nile in Acholi Sub Region, although the Bunyoro Kitara shared Oil and Gas in Bulisa district.

This could improve the marginalized Acholi Sub Region, which is losing its revenue opportunity; in her neighboring region, the Shea Butter Oil industry is now being built in Otuke District. This will increase benefits that will depend on production, export earnings over the medium term.