Global Politics
UGANDA: “THE HOT SPOT” OR SWING REGIONS IN UGANDA’S JANUARY 15, 2026 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
The United States of America and the Ugandan government engaged in a diplomatic row, as the USA warned they are watching the January 15, 2026, election and the aftermath, how the Ugandans will react, and the responses of the Uganda People’s Defense Forces (UPDF)
GULU CITY-TUESDAY, JANUARY 6, 2026.
Okumu Livingstone Langol, Our Correspondent
Faintly, the Donald Trump administration has come to shed the political liability of US engagement in Uganda in the name of countering terrorism. President Museveni has been striving to undermine the rule of law.
As the US engagement in Uganda over the past quarter century has been focused broadly on advancing regional stability and countering terrorism, and yet Museveni has been building family wealth to entrench his 30-year reign of power, according to John Patrick Amama Mbabazi and Gen. David Sauza, his longtime ally.
Other US strong engagement with the Museveni Administration was based on responding to global health threats and humanitarian crises, as well as promoting democracy and development. According to the school of thought in the US power corridors, they have started questioning themselves. And over the past decade, U.S officials and some members of Congress raised growing concerns with Human Rights violations, closing political spaces, torturing NUP, and the arrest of Dr. Kizza Besigye and his close ally, as corruption and nepotism are the center of Museveni’s core duty.
For the last one year after the arrest of Dr. Kizza Besigye Uganda security agency have been implicated in serious abuses, including extrajudicial killing, torture of civilians, arbitrary arrest, enforced disappearance of thousands government critics officials and opposition supporters of late on December 6, 2025 where clobbered in Gulu City, northern Uganda where all the streets were closed by UPDF dreaded military marauding and trials of Dr. Kizza Besigye and his co arrested including one of his lawyer civilians in military court tribune.
Thus, as leading to human rights violation slapped on Museveniomic heyday blue boy with Biden Administration fall apart, when Uganda cross red line by refusing LEGTQ law, the so called extreme anti-Gay and lesbianism in the late 2023, the U.S. issued an advisory warning U.S. citizens, businessmen and investors of financial and reputation risk related to endemic corruption and the lack of respect for human rights in Uganda.
Ugandans began to questioned why now, after when Museveni refused to endorsed anti-gay and lesbianism, then the Biden Administration smell the rats, and yet U.S. administration has been promoting military aggression by UPDF in neighboring countries, since 1997, the DR. Congo, the Burundi intervention and military takeover, the deployments of UPDF in CRA and other African countries, under the abridgment of African Union peace keeping. At the same time, Museveni looted those countries.
The other glaring images of the double standard of the U.S. administration, they allowed Museveni to be headmaster of African leaders, to cite how Museveni managed to hoodwink the superpower to fall to his ploy.
In 2022, the Kenyan Election was rigged by Museveni’s deep state to allow William Ruto to ascend to power despite Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Amollo Odonga being at real power.
And later Gen Muhoozi Kanierogaba mocked Kenyans that he would overrun the Kenyan government in two weeks, implying that you have seen what I have done to dethrone your supposed president, and asserted “(sic), our own to become president of the Republic of Kenya president”
President Museveni’s reaction to the ousting of Venezuelan President Maduro, is part of his governance critique, accusing Western countries of trying to impose homosexuality on other countries, and cultivating close relations with Russia and the People’s Republic of China
Opposition supporters worry about the aftermath of the January 15, 202,6, election
The Ugandan opposition supporters in Gulu City are still left in the cold, following the current factual explanation for why the United States recently pulled its envoys (Ambassadors) from Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi, and why it is primarily about those countries’ upcoming elections.
The comment from NUP supporters who feared for their lives and asked our Correspondent not to publish their names says that with Ambassadors recalled and many posts currently without replacement, the U.S. diplomatic footprint in East Africa has shrunk, potentially affecting coordination on security, development, and regional cooperation, where they term it modern diplomacy. In a nutshell, the opposition supporters are in fear, following high traffic of the Banyangkole from Western Uganda, where President Museveni’s political base is living as the country’s election is nearing.
The fear for the people of Western Uganda not to vote heavily as the case was in the 2021 election is based on the fact that Dr. Kizza Besigye, the former founder member of Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), was kept communicados in Luzira maximum prison.
The western Uganda region although say President Museveni will win the January 15, election but the doubt if there would not be chaos, many votes says the margin between President Museveni, NRM party and Robert Kyagulanyi, NUP opposition party challenging 40 Museveni realms of power according to the crowd’s pullers, if the voting can go by the massive rally being attended during NUP party President Bobi Wine, it shows that NUP have the majority votes country wide.
According to sources who asked not to be named, the rich Banyakole from Semblable, Kazoo, and Rwakatura districts, which used to be part of Lakes Muburu National Wildlife Park before the advent of President Museveni 1986 took over. Those Banykole have money, and they have bought apartments in Western countries, most of them have been sending their children to study abroad, and they have nothing.
Our correspondent found that the swing region is mainly the central region and the Eastern Region. NUP is likely to sweep Buganda and Busoga regions in a landslide victory. The finding is based on protest votes, due to political fatigue after 40 years since President Museveni short his way to power, Uganda has become fed up with the so-called protecting the gains. And yet most of the population is resonating with abject poverty.
According to impeccable sources close to the former Speaker of the 10th Parliament, Ms. Rebecca Kadaga revealed that, reason why Busoga is voting for the NUP party, because the former Speaker had reached a deal with Robert Kyagulanyi for the presidency.
“Kadega had planned to stand in 2026 and later be for only one term as president of Uganda, and later leave power to Robert Kyagulanyi. And this is the reason why Busoga is voting for the NUP party.
President Museveni is more wary and sleepy at night, because his fear emanates from the influence of the speaker of 1the 1st Parliament, Ms. Anita Amongi. Museveni sees Ms. Anita Amongi as a threat to power because of her strong influence among the NRM MPs and the Opposition MPs in the 11th parliament. The Museveni cabinet kitchen sees Anita Amongi as the main change of Museveni’s 60-year family rule of power. Sources from the statehouse revealed that come 2031, Anita Amongi will be on the ballot paper contesting against Museveni. The Ugandans who believe that Museveni will not contest in 2031 are reading a different book.
Therefore, early on, Ms. Anita Among, together with Gen. Muhoozi, had lined up their aspirants’ MPs candidates that including those from Northern Uganda, 11 MPs from Acholi Sub Region, the likes of Anthony Akol, for Kilak North, Mike Lakony, Kilak South, Ojara Martin Mapenduzi, Akello Lucy Amuru Woman MP, Ojara Okin PP, Chaw West, John Atuka, Agago East MP, Santa Okot, Aruu North MP, directly elected, among others in the regions.
However, when President Museveni and Anita Amongi planned, the game plan was changed to weed out her supporters to pave the way for Gen. Muhoozi’s ascend to power. And now the Teso sub-region will not vote heavily for the NRM party, another reason that they advanced, if no cattle compensation is not done in time, when Uganda,on January 15, the Teso Sub Region will cast their votes for the opposition strong man, Bobi Wine.
Lango Sub-Region is a UPC stronghold for NUP
President Museveni, for years, has been enjoying NRM support in Lango Sub Region, based on a divide and rule policy by dangling cabinet and Residence District Commissioners as sons and daughters from Lango Sub Region have been having the upper hand against the backdrop of the divided Acholi Community political ploy.
And yet in terms of Physical infrastructure, Acholi Sub Region has seen more development in the road sector, water, and sanitation. Acholi sub-region road sector coverage approximately totals based on available numbers from the most recent figures pubic report, 641 km built or under construction in Acholi and Madi under PRELNOR, 151 km planned under the National Oil Seeds project specific in Achol,in and 195.1 km planned supervision scope under RUDSEC for the Acholi segment. Still, the Lango sub-region voted for NRM.
However, when Museveni stopped Jimmy Akena, the UPC party president not from standing in the January 15 election, his wife, Betty Amongi, the minister for Gender, Labor and Social Developmentdefied NRM party rule and opted to stand as UPC woman MP for Lira City against Dr. Ruth Jane Aceng, the Health Minister.
This sparked wrath in the Lango community, and this forced the Obote son, Jimmy Akena, to denounce and reject the notion that the Lango sub-region, a stronghold for UPC, should not vote for NRM, but rather they should vote for the NUP party.
Otherwise, Amongi defied her husband Jimmy Akena, telling UPC party stalwarts to vote for her as MP and they should vote for NRM President Museveni, which annoyed Dr. Milton Obote’s family, forcing Bishop Engena Maitum and his brother, who live in Nigeria, to come and chase Betty Amongi and dissolve her marriage with Jimmy Akena, sources intimated.
Acholi Sub-Region left in limbo
Acholi Sub Region, which has been viewed as the gate of Uganda’s political powerhouse, has been captured by military occupation recently. President Museveni sees Acholi Sub Region as his founding guerrilla base and uses ill-fitted warlords oozing money and cows to sideline most of the population who are living in abject poverty.
According to the Uganda National Development Index, the Acholi Sub-Region is the poorest region in Uganda.
As Uganda will be voting on January 15, 2026. The situation will likely be decided by how the military will use maximum forces, and the responses of Uganda toward their forces will decide Uganda’s future
